Analyzing Celgene’s growth prospects after Juno, Impact deals
Celgene Corp.’s two deals this month -- including its largest ever acquisition, of Juno Therapeutics Inc. -- will help fill in the holes left by late-stage failures and commercial disappointments of candidates that were intended to replace lost revenues after Revlimid lenalidomide loses patent protection.
If Celgene can navigate the clinical and commercial risks associated with Juno’s pipeline and execute on its own late-stage candidates, the company could see revenue growth accelerate through the mid-2020s.
But Celgene’s current expectations for launches between now and 2022 don’t look like enough to avoid a revenue decline followed by slower growth after Revlimid succumbs to genericization.
Celgene has highlighted 10 late-stage programs, including the lead candidates from Juno and Impact Biomedicines Inc., as potential blockbusters that are expected to contribute a combined $16 billion in incremental peak sales between 2020 and 2030. All are expected to launch during 2018-22.
The closest to market, autoimmune candidate ozanimod, has the potential to be best in class. In December, Celgene submitted an NDA for the oral selective modulator of sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor 1 (S1PR1; S1P1; EDG1) to treat multiple sclerosis, with a launch expected in 4Q18.
Ozanimod is also in Phase III testing for Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis (UC). Celgene expects peak sales of $4-$6 billion.
The more likely scenario is that Celgene revenues plateau over 2022-25, with a trough year in 2026 that is followed by a return to growth, albeit at a slower rate.
Celgene expects $1 billion in peak sales for fedratinib, which Celgene obtained through the acquisition of Impact announced Jan. 7. Celgene paid $1.1 billion up front and may pay up to $5.9 billion in milestones related to the oral Janus kinase-2 (JAK-2) inhibitor. The molecule is slated for regulatory submissions mid-year to treat myelofibrosis.
Celgene also expects $3 billion in peak sales from Juno’s lisocabtagene maraleucel (JCAR017), a chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy targeting CD19. On Jan. 22, Celgene announced it would acquire Juno