3:55 PM
Nov 02, 2018
 |  BC Extra  |  Company News

AbbVie says global Humira market eroding faster than expected

AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) Chairman and CEO Richard Gonzalez said the company now expects greater erosion in ex-U.S. sales of autoimmune drug Humira adalimumab by the end of next year than previously guided. During the pharma’s 3Q18 earnings conference call Friday, Gonzalez said AbbVie now expects an erosion rate of 26-27% in 2019. It previously expected 18-20% erosion over 2018-20.

Gonzalez said Humira discounts are coming in on average about 10 points higher than the company anticipated, and range 10-80%.

The higher discounting is seen in Nordic tender countries, Gonzalez said, though those countries represent about 4-5% of overall international revenue.

Gonzalez said the 26-27% erosion is a blended rate that includes countries where Humira still has IP protection, and so erosion "will obviously be higher in the countries that do have biosimilar exposure."

He said AbbVie considers Humira revenue to be "locked" in two-thirds of countries. In the "locked" countries, either Humira IP is still protected, the country has mandated discounting or the country has already tendered. AbbVie is still negotiating discounts and volumes for the remaining one-third, and expects to settle those in a month or two.

In its earnings Friday, AbbVie reported non-GAAP EPS of $2.14 in 3Q18, up from $1.41 in 3Q17 and above the consensus estimate of $2.01. Third quarter revenues increased to $8.2 billion from $7 billion in the prior year's quarter, and were in line with the Street's estimate.

AbbVie lowered guidance for FY18 international Humira sales to $6.3 billion from $6.4 billion previously.

It raised its EPS guidance and now expects non-GAAP EPS of $7.90-$7.92 vs. prior guidance of $7.76-$7.86.

Consensus figures provided by FactSet.

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