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Jan 28, 2008
 |  BioCentury  |  Analyst Picks & Changes

Analyst picks & changes

Analyst picks & changes

Company Bank Analyst Coverage Opinion Wk chg 1/25 cls
Ambrilia (TSX:AMB) Dundee David Martin Rating change Speculative buy -15% C$0.80
Martin changed his rating after Ambrilia reported that it was not possible to determine either non-inferiority or inferiority of its prolonged-release formulation of Octreotide to Sandostatin LAR, from Novartis (NYSE:NVS; SWX:NOVN). Both compounds significantly decreased IGF-1 in a Phase III trial to treat acromegaly. He now believes the probability of approval for the Octreotide program has been reduced to 40% from 60% (see B13).
Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) Baird Christopher Raymond Other Neutral 1% $48.14
Banc of America William Sargent Other Neutral
Securities
Cowen Eric Schmidt Other Market outperform
Jefferies Adam Walsh Price target Hold
Lazard Joel Sendek Other Hold
Leerink William Tanner Other Market outperform
Oppenheimer Bret Holley Other Market outperform
Raymond lowered his FY08 EPS estimate to $4.34 from $4.46 to reflect Amgen's guidance of $4-$4.30. He also lowered his FY09 EPS estimate to $4.77 from $4.87. He is concerned about the potential negative outcome of the March ODAC meeting to discuss the risk of erythropoeisis- stimulating agents (ESAs), including Amgen's Aranesp, in cancer indications. He now expects the anemia drug to have $3.106B in 2008 revenue, down from his previous $3.121B estimate.
Sargent raised his FY08 EPS estimate to $3.88 from $3.12 on the company's earnings news. Still, he believes an additional 25% of chemotherapy-induced anemia patients could be at risk from likely ODAC restrictions of Aranesp. Sargent believes that "likely Aranesp usage restrictions, competitive threats to Enbrel and Aranesp, and a lack of near-term catalysts" are "continuing overhangs." But he said he could be more optimistic about Amgen by mid-2008.
Schmidt raised his FY08 and FY09 revenue estimates to $14.7B and $15.5B from $14.5B and $15.3B, respectively....

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