Steady as she goes

There are three very different piles of tea leaves for 2005. The bad pile has all the negative publicity over drug safety and uncertainty over how FDA will be run as a result. The neutral pile has the fact that the econ-omy is mid-way through what is typically a five-year macroeconomic cy-cle, as well as the fact that the biotech sector is 15 months into an IPO window that typically would have lasted about 12 months, and 22 months from a sector bottom whereas biotech upswings generally have carried on for 15-18 months.

The good pile contains the upcoming drug launches and Phase III milestones...