Ebb & Flow

Wall Street has an adage that it's best to take some skin out of the game during the summer months, when trading volumes diminish. But - as Ebb & Flow has pointed out before - biotech investors adhering to that theme would have missed some pretty robust summer rallies going back to 1993. And even as the BioCentury 100 lost 5% in the past two weeks compared to a 7% drop on the NASDAQ, biotech investors may have to consider doubling down rather than lightening up on the bet.

In the past three summer sessions - the period between Memorial Day and Labor Day in the U.S. (the last Monday in May to the first Monday in September) - the BioCentury index has easily outperformed the NASDAQ Composite. Not that three years make a trend, but the positives are worth noting. Last summer - a particularly dour season for equities - drove all the major market indices down. But the NASDAQ fell 20%, compared to a 14% decline in the BC100. In 2000, the NASDAQ's 32% upswing was eclipsed by a 67.2% move in the biotech index. And in 1999, the BC100 moved up 36.8%, more than double the 15.1% move by the NASDAQ (see "Summer Trading"). ...