Maybe the football pool was more interesting

The $23.25 per share premium to be paid by American Home Products to buy the rest of Genetics Institute (GENIZ) begs the question: Where were the gamblers? AHP made the bid after the market on Tuesday, when GENIZ's stock was $61.75. The pharma company had only until the end of the year to exercise the option, and the $85 exercise price was known. But despite the potential for a more than 35 percent upside, investors weren't willing to bet that AHP was going to call in its chip.

"The buzz on the street was that AHP was going to pass," said Hambrecht & Quist analyst Richard van den Broek. "It's a testament to AHP senior management. They did a magnificent job managing expectations."...